Chris Paul: Point God? (The case for CP3 as the best PG of All-Time)
Jordan or LeBron? 1996 Bulls or 2016 Warriors? Russell or Wilt? We’re sports fans: forging heated, irrational, impossibly unquantifiable arguments is what we do. And the 2021 NBA Finals carry with them the seeds of a spicy new debate to add to the pile: is Chris Paul the greatest Point Guard of all time?
As it stands, CP3 boasts an impressive resume but is conspicuously lacking in Championship Rings and has only just now reached the Finals for the first time in his sixteenth season. This alone disqualifies him from the conversation in the eyes of most basketball fans, myself included. However, as I’ve established last week, Paul’s place in basketball history is riding on this Finals campaign and it begs the question: just how much does it move the needle if Chris Paul becomes an NBA Champion?
To unpack his chances further, I’ve endeavoured to make a statistical case against the two players widely considered to be at the top of the list: Ervin ‘Magic’ Johnson and Isiah Thomas. We’ll look at their impact on the game across five categories: Career Accolades, Scoring, Facilitating, Defense and Clutch.
CAREER ACCOLADES
MAGIC JOHNSON — 19.5 PTs — 7.2 RBS — 11.2 AST — PER: 24.1 — WS% 0.225
13 Seasons
5 x NBA Champion
12 x All Star
10 x All NBA
3 x MVP
3 x Finals MVP
4 x AST Champ
6th All Time AST Leader
ISIAH THOMAS — 19.2 PTS — 3.6 REB — 9.3 AST — PER: 18.1 — WS% 0.109
13 Seasons
2 x NBA Champion
12 x All Star
5 x All NBA
1 x AST Champ
1 x Finals MVP
9th All Time AST Leader
CHRIS PAUL — 18.3 PTS — 4.5 REB — 9.4 AST — PER 24.9 — WS% 0.241
16 Seasons
11 x All Star
10 x All NBA
6 x STL Champ
9 x All Defensive
2005/06 ROY
4 x AST Champ
5th All Time Assist Leader(soon to be 3rd and has a legitimate chance at 2nd)
VERDICT: Magic wins in a landslide here — you simply can’t argue with 5 NBA Championships backed up by 3 MVP’s and 3 Finals MVP’s. Indisputable. Isiah and Paul are closer but present with very different profile types. Chris’ longevity probably wins out here over IT but only just.
SCORING
PAUL
18.3 PTS on 0.583 TS% — 47% FG — 37% 3PT — 87% FT
MAGIC
19.5 PTS on 0.610 TS% — 52% FG — 30% 3PT — 85% FT
(only 1.3 x 3PT attempts per game compared to 3.7 for CP3)
ISIAH
19.2 PTS on 0.516 TS% — 45% FG — 29% 3PT — 75% FT
(only 1.4 x 3PT attempts per game compared to 3.7 for CP3)
VERDICT: I’ve given this category to CP3. As much as he’s the unfair beneficiary of modern basketball over the other two (ie: the increase in 3PT shooting skill and volume), you simply have to concede that his shooting ability elevates him over the other two from a scoring standpoint.
FACILITATING
MAGIC
11.2 AST on 22.3% Usage — 40.9 AST% — 2.87 AST:TO-RATIO
CP3
9.4 AST on 23.9% Usage — 45.3 AST% — 3.9 AST:TO-RATIO
(Check out a fantastic article HERE on how his TO Ratio is even more impressive when broken down into Pass-Only Turnovers)
ISIAH
9.3 AST on 25.3% Usage — 37.4 AST% — 2.45 AST:TO-RATIO
VERDICT: This is a close race in which only one thing is clear — IT trails well behind with the lowest raw assist numbers on the highest usage rate with the worst turnover ratio. As for CP3 v Magic, it depends on whether you weight importance toward simply having 2 more assists per game (advantage Magic) or having an extremely efficient Assist % and Assist to TO ratio (advantage Paul). It’s basically neck and neck.
DEFENSE
PAUL: Defensive Rating: 105.1 on 2.1 STL and 2.2 DBPM (7.4 TOTAL BPM)
MAGIC: Defensive Rating: 104.5 on 1.9 STL and 1.6 DBPM (7.5 TOTAL BPM)
ISIAH: Defensive Rating: 106.8 on 1.9 STL and 0.2 DBPM (2.6 TOTAL BPM)
VERDICT: Chris Paul edges out the other two here with Isiah, again, in a fairly distant third place. CP has the best Defensive Rating on a really impressive Defensive Box Plus Minus. Oh yeah….and 4 time steals leader and NINE Time All Defense.
CLUTCH
MAGIC
Playoff Stats Bump: 19.5 PTS (+0) 7.7 REB (+0.5) 12.3 AST (+0.9)
Win Record in Closeout Games: 32–14 (0.696)
ISIAH
Playoff Stat Bump: 20.4 PTS (+0.8) — 4.7 REB (+0.9) — 8.9 AST (-0.4)
Win Record in Closeout Games: 16–9 (0.640)
PAUL
Playoff Stat Bump: 20.6 PTS (+1.7) — 5.1 REB (+0.6) — 8.3 (-1.1)
Win Record in Closeout Games: 10–12 (0.455)
VERDICT: This one lets CP down more than any other category. Being the only player of the three with a win record below .500 in closeout games is hard to stomach. Magic takes the cake here and Isiah was pretty damn impressive too.
AND THE WINNER IS…
For the sake of trying to quantify this exercise, let’s say we allocate 3 points to the ‘winner’ of each category followed by 2 and 1 point for second and third places respectively. The numbers give us a clear pecking order:
Third Place: Isiah Thomas (7 points)
Second Place: Chris Paul (10 points)
First Place: Ervin Magic Johnson (13 points)
No matter what Chris Paul does from here, and regardless of how deeply the basketball world will respect his winning a championship, to overtake the overwhelming body of work from Magic is just a bridge too far. There is, however, a convincing case that Paul would leapfrog his fellow undersized one guard, Isiah Thomas. Despite having one less championship, a win would see Paul end his career as an objectively more accomplished basketball player across almost every category. Not only that, but the narrative of leading a team to the promised land at age 36 is simply incredible and would go a long way to defusing the lack of clutch performances on his resume — the only real knock on his career so far. So, will he be the greatest point guard of all time? Probably not. But runner up sure ain’t bad.
Now there’s only one thing left to do — wait, watch and prepare to argue!
